Despite the strong performance of the municipal bond market in the last year, there are many questions as to where the bond market is heading. This is especially true as the rising rate environment and the COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect the bond market.
Despite some challenges, the municipal bond market is in a solid technical position entering the year. Credit quality is strong, and the interest rates on taxable municipal bonds are low.
This is a good time to consider adding a taxable municipal bond to your investment portfolio. This type of bond has a higher yield than tax-exempt bonds. However, it also comes with a lower tax exemption. Therefore, it may be more attractive to investors in lower tax brackets.
The credit quality of taxable municipal bonds is strong, and it appears that the Fed has stepped up its rate tightening in response to rising inflation. Despite this, the pace of improvement is likely to slow down through 2022. However, the market is already discounting that the Fed is increasing its fund’s rate by 300 bps.
The municipal bond market has been under pressure due to fund outflows. While the total amount of outflows through the first three quarters was below what was seen in the previous two years, overall performance was better.
While market conditions have improved, they remain volatile. As more information becomes available, investors should be more nimble and consider stepping out of the market if it becomes too risky. The markets are likely to remain volatile for some time. However, some issuers still face big credit pressures.
As a result of the onset of the pandemic, trading volumes for municipal securities spiked. This resulted in a significant increase in transaction costs. This added to the cost of borrowing for municipal issuers. These costs were measured as the effective spread, the difference between the bid and asks prices based on actual trade data. This increase in transaction costs wiped out many of the spread reductions achieved in the preceding four-year period.
Historically, municipal bonds have performed well in down market cycles. In this case, however, there is a lot of pressure on the muni bond sector. This pressure comes from a wide variety of sources. Among the most prominent is the Fed’s recent interest rate increase. The Fed is raising the federal funds rate. The interest rates banks charge each other.
This increase is largely due to the Fed’s desire to control inflation. This policy change triggered a huge uptick in government bond yields. Aside from the Fed’s intentions, the impact of rising rates is a major pain point for municipals. Long-term municipal bonds offer a compelling opportunity. When purchased at the right time, these bonds can be highly profitable.
However, rising rates do offer opportunities for active investors. This may include opportunities in high-yield bonds, mid-grade credit, and diversified portfolios. Choosing which to invest in can be challenging, but the muni market offers several attractive features.
Investing in muni bonds can be a reliable source of income and can also provide diversification and tax efficiency. But, like all investments, it carries risk. It is important to keep your investment objectives in mind and to choose investments that are right for you.
Municipal bonds are a good choice for investors who value the tax benefits of munis and want to avoid riskier assets. However, even high-rated municipal bonds carry a risk of default. To lower this risk, invest in bonds issued by well-established companies.
Another way to diversify your muni bond portfolio is to invest in municipal bond mutual funds. These funds allow investors to diversify their bond holdings without sacrificing the tax benefits of munis. ETFs are another option and can be a cheaper way to invest. They are traded on the market like stocks. However, they have more volatility when it comes to price.
Bond funds can also help reduce the risk of default by spreading risk among individual municipal bonds. The risk of credit and liquidity is also lessened with these types of investments.
Alan Appelbaum 
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